سیاستگذاری عمومی

سیاستگذاری عمومی

تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر دستورکار سیاستگذاری گاز طبیعی ایران با استفاده از مدل جریان-های چندگانه کینگدان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
محمد رستگارفر 1
یحیی کمالی 2
عباس ملکی 3
1 کارشناسی ارشد سیاستگذاری عمومی، دانشکده حقوق و الهیات، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
2 دانشیار سیاستگذاری عمومی، دانشکده حقوق و الهیات، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران
3 استاد سیاستگذاری انرژی، دانشکده مهندسی انرژی، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران
10.22059/jppolicy.2025.105206
چکیده
انرژی گاز طبیعی در ایران با ناترازی مواجه است و این موضوع به دغدغه­ مسئولان اجرایی و تقنینی کشور تبدیل شده است. بیش از 70% از گاز طبیعی در بخش خانگی، تجاری و صنایع خُرد مصرف می­شود و همین موضوع، مدیریت انرژی گاز طبیعی را با چالش­ های جدی مواجه کرده است. این میزان از مصرف گاز با ظرفیت گاز تولیدی در کشور تناسب ندارد و از عمده دلایل بروز ناترازی می­ باشد. هدف پژوهش حاضر، تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر تعیین دستورکار سیاستگذاری گاز طبیعی در ایران است که با استفاده از چارچوب نظری جریان­های چندگانه­ کینگدان به آن پرداخته شده است. ­برای دستیابی به هدف پژوهش، 20 مصاحبه­ هدفمند با خبرگان انرژی با تخصص­های علمی مختلف و در سطوح سیاسی، اجرایی، حاکمیتی و دانشگاهی صورت پذیرفت. روش پژوهش در این تحقیق بدین صورت بود که با استفاده از روش تحلیل محتوای کیفی به تحلیل مصاحبه­ ها و پردازش داده­ ها پرداخته شد و سپس داده­ ها به صورت کدگذاری استخراج گردید و در جریان­های چندگانه دسته­ بندی شد. یافته­ های پژوهش نشان داد که 3 جریان مسئله­، سیاسی و سیاستگذاری در تعیین دستور کار انرژی گاز طبیعی ایران مؤثر است و با تحلیل عوامل این سه جریان، می­توان به پنجره فرصت­ های سیاستگذاری برای انرژی گاز طبیعی در ایران دست یافت. تنوع­ بخشی به سبد انرژی کشور با استفاده از انرژی­ های تجدیدپذیر، جلوگیری از هدر رفت انرژی گاز طبیعی در مسیر انتقال، بهینه­ سازی، نحوه­ قیمت­ گذاری، اصلاح الگوی مصرف و آزادسازی منابع گازی برای صادرات و ایجاد وابستگی سیاسی و ارزآوری اقتصادی بخشی از نتایج این پژوهش می­ باشند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
دستور کار انرژی
گاز طبیعی
ناترازی
چارچوب جریان‌های چندگانه
جان کینگدان
ایران
  1. Abdollahpour, J. and Heidari, G. (2023). Analyzing the General Energy Policies and how to Apply the Social Approach in the Upstream Documents of this Field. Quarterly Journal of The Macro and Strategic Policies, 11(43), 477-518. doi: 10.30507/jmsp.2023.354524.2467 [In Persian]
  2. Amini Rarani, M, Asadi, L. (2021). Addressing domestic violence in the covid-19 pandemic: an application of Kingdon's multiple streams model. Journal of nursing and midwifery. 19 (9): 752-761. [In Persian]
  3. Asa Knaggard. (2015). The Multiple Streams Framework and the Problem Broker, International Conference on Public Policy, Milano, 1-3 July. Published online on: https://www.ippapublicpolicy.org/file/paper/1433956183.pdf
  4. Attarzadeh, B. (2019). Methodology, Theory and Findings of Kingdon’s Agenda, Alternatives, and Public Policies. Iranian Journal of Public Policy, 5(1), 201-225. doi: 10.22059/ppolicy.2019.71582 ]In Persian[
  5. CEIC Data (N.D). Iran Natural Gas: Consumption. (Online source), Retrieved at: https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/iran/natural-gas-consumption
  6. Center for Political and International Studies (2022). Iran and the Consequences of the Ukrainian Crisis for the Future of Europe. (Online source), Retrieved on 2022 August 31 at: https://www.ipis.ir/portal/subjectview/691791 ]In Persian[
  7. Center for Development and Foresight Research (2024). 70 percent of the country's energy consumption is supplied by gas. (Online source). Available on 2024 December 20, at: https://cdrf.ir/post/2459
  8. Chitsazzadeh, A. and Hassantash, S. G. (2020). A Comparative Study of Natural Gas Export Policy and Energy Security in Russia, Qatar & Iran. Economic Strategy, 9(33), 37-69. ]In Persian[
  9. Daniel Béland & Michael Howlett (2016) The Role and Impact of the Multiple-Streams Approach in Comparative Policy Analysis, Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 18:3, 221-227, DOI:10.1080/13876988.2016.1174410
  10. Dehshiri, M.R, Ghafouri, M. (2014). The strategic requirements of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the new Middle East policies of America. Strategic and Macro Policies, 3 (No. 12). [In Persian]
  11. Ecoiran (2024).Iran ranks second in the world's gas reserves. (Online Source), Retrieved on 2024 April 15, at: https://ecoiran.com/fa/tiny/news-60950
  12. Euronews (2024). Exporting gas from South Pars to Europe; Did the fall of Bashar al-Assad ease Turkey and Qatar's mind to build the pipeline? (Online source), Retrieved on 15/12/2024 at: https://parsi.euronews.com/2024/12/15/qatar-turkiye-gas-pipeline-is-it-possible-after-assad-fall
  13. Far architecture, Muhammad (2022). An overview of energy storage technologies (natural gas) of the fuel consumption optimization company accessible on (7 November 2022) at https://ifco.ir/images/1402/yaddash/pajohesh/gaz2.pdf [In Persian]
  14. Gao, Tianhong & Guo, Jia. (2021). Policy Agenda Setting of “Coal to Gas” in China Based on Multiple-Streams Theory Analysis Framework: A Case Study. Atlantis Press. Atlantis Press. https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210218.013
  15. Government Information Base (2024). The necessity of increasing synergy among GECF members. (Online source), Retrieved on 2024 December 6  at: https://dolat.ir/detail/453883 [In Persian]
  16. Heirani, H., Bagheri Moghaddam, N., & Mosayebi, A. (2022). Investigate the Challenges of Technological Local Content Development in Oil and Gas Industry and Provide Policy Recommendations. Strategic Studies of public policy, 12(44), 2-23. doi: 10.22034/sspp.2022.546427.3113 [In Persian]
  17. Hafezi, R. and Rahimi Rad, Z. (2024). Social participation and its role in addressing energy imbalance challenge. Strategic Studies of public policy, 14(52), 82-102. doi: 10.22034/sspp.2024.2036820.3688 [In Persian]
  18. IEA(N.D). Why is natural gas important? (Online source). Retrieved at:: https://www.iea.org/energy-system/fossil-fuels/natural-gas
  19. Iran Era (2024). Redesign of the Qatar-Turkey-Europe gas pipeline with the fall of Bashar al-Assad. (Online source), Retrieved on 2024 December 20 at: https://www.asriran.com/fa/news/1023189 [In Persian]
  20. Iran National Gas Company (2017) Getting to know natural gas (online resource) accessible at https://nigc.ir/index.aspx?siteid=1&fkeyid=&siteid=1&pageid=171 [In Persian]
  21. Iranian Diplomacy (2024). Prospects and Challenges of Renewable Energies. (Online source), Retrieved on November 12, 2024 at: http://irdiplomacy.ir/fa/news/2029192 [In Persian]
  22. Instituteofsustainabilitystudies (2024). What is meant by green fuels? (Online source), Retrieved on May 4, 2024 at https://instituteofsustainabilitystudies.com/insights/lexicon/what-is-meant-by-green-fuels/
  23. Interview 1, 2023. Completed by Associate Professor of Energy Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman (SBUK)
  24. Interview 2, 2023. Completed by Energy Researcher. Institute for International Energy Studies, Ministry of Petroleum
  25. Interview 3, 2023. Completed by Faculty Member and Head of Energy Economics Research Institute, Institute for International Energy Studies, Ministry of Petroleum
  26. Interview 4, 2023. Completed by Associate Professor of Gas Engineering, University of Petroleum Industry
  27. Interview 5, 2023. Completed by Researcher, Sobhan Energy Studies Institute
  28. Interview 6, 2023. Completed by Researcher, Sobhan Energy Studies Institute
  29. nterview 8, 2023. Completed by Associate Professor of International Relations, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran
  30. Interview 9, 2023. Completed by Assistant Professor, Faculty of Petroleum and Gas Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology
  31. Interview 10, 2023. Completed by Assistant Professor, Faculty of Petroleum, Tehran University of Petroleum Industry. Affiliated with the Ministry of Petroleum
  32. Interview 11, 2024. Completed by Researcher in Energy Diplomacy, Supreme National Defence University of Iran
  33. Interview 12, 2024. Director of the Energy Desk, Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran
  34. Interview 13, 2024. Senior Government Manager of Iran’s Gas Engineering and Development Company
  35. Interview 14, 2024. Professor of Nuclear Engineering at Sharif University of Technology and former Minister of Iran
  36. Interview 15, 2024. Senior Manager at the governing body of the Expediency Discernment Council Secretariat
  37. Interview 16, 2024. Professor of Energy Economics and President of the University of Petroleum Industry – Tehran
  38. Interview 17, 2024. Director of the Iranian Energy Resources Institute, Energy Economics
  39. Interview 18, 2024. Senior government manager at the National Planning and Budget Organization with a degree in energy systems engineering.
  40. Interview 19, 2024. Senior government manager at the National Iranian Gas Company with expertise in energy economics
  41. Interview 20, 2024. Civil servant at the National Iranian Gas Company with a specialization in energy economics.
  42. Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency (2023). Heads of gas exporting countries support Iranian President's proposals. (Online source), Retrieved on March 13, 2023 at: https://www.irna.ir/news/85406189 [In Persian]
  43. Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency (2024). Heads of gas exporting countries support Iranian President's proposals. (Online source), Retrieved on 2024 March 3 at: https://www.irna.ir/news/85406189 [In Persian]
  44. Kamali, Y. (2023). Evaluation and application of public policy theories, Kerman, Shahid Bahonar University Publications, Kerman, and Hamrehe Elm Publications [In Persian]
  45. Karimi, M. S., Hafezi, R. and Souhankar, A. (2022). Reframing of Iran's Energy Diplomacy in Natural Gas on the Horizon of 1420, Necessity or Choice? Strategic Studies of public policy, 11(41), 116-135. ]In Persian[
  46. Khane Abad, E. (2021). Energy Battle. Mashhad: Navid Fath Publications. [In Persian]
  47. Malekmohammadi, H. (2014). Basics and principles of public policy, third edition (2016), Tehran, Samt Publications [In Persian]
  48. Malekmohammadi, H. R., & Kamali, Y. (2016). The studying concepts of paradigm, referential and advocacy coalition in public policy analysis. POLITICAL QUARTERLY, 46(1), 265-285. doi: 10.22059/jpq.2016.57332 [In Persian]
  49. Maleki, A. (2013). Energy Policy, first edition. Tehran: Ney Publicatins. [In Persian]
  50. Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2019). Dr. Rouhani at the inauguration ceremony of the Ministry of Oil’s national projects: The JCPOA was too big and important, they conspired to break its back. (Online source), Retrieved on March 1, 2019 at: https://mfa.gov.ir/portal/newsview/630202 [In Persian]
  51. Ministry of Oil (2024). General policies of the system in the field of energy. (Online source), Retrieved on 9 July 2024 at: https://www.mop.ir/fa-IR/Portal/4924/news/view/14616/6910 [In Persian]
  52. Mu, R. (2018). Coupling of Problems, Political Attention, Policies and Institutional Conditions: Explaining the Performance of Environmental Targets in the National Five-Year Plans in China. Sustainability, 10 (5), 1477. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10051477
  53. Nikseresht, M., Pishgahifard, Z., Khaledi, H., Gholami, B., & Pishgahifard, Z. (2014). Natural gas Iran's opportunities and challenges from the perspective of geopolitical. Geography and Environmental Planning, 25(2), 229-252.
  54. Oil and Energy Information Network (2024). President: We consume more than 2 to 3 times more electricity and gas than Europeans. (Online source), Retrieved on 2024 December 16 at: https://www.shana.ir/news/651019 [In Persian]
  55. Oil and Energy Information Network (2024). Why is Iran's active presence in GECF important? (Online source), Retrieved on 2024   December  8  at: https://www.shana.ir/news/650761 [In Persian]
  56. Oil and Energy Information Network (2024). The role of governance in solving the problem of energy imbalance. (Online source), Retrieved on 19 November 2024 at: https://www.shana.ir/news/649596 [In Persian]
  57. Oil and Energy Information Network (2024). Iran's gas consumption is equivalent to half of Europe. (Online source), Retrieved on 2024 October 29 at: https://www.shana.ir/news/648091 [In Persian]
  58. Opec (2024). Iran facts and figures. (Online Source), Retrieved N.D at: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/163.htm
  59. Pasandideh, A. and Heidari, G. (2024). Paradigm Analysis of Renewable Energy Governance and Policymaking In Iran. Journal of Renewable and New Energy, 11(1), 125-138. doi: 10.22034/jrenew.2024.187737 [In Persian]
  60. Presidential Information Center (2015). President's Speech at the Summit of Gas Exporting Countries. (Online source), Retrieved on Monday, December 2, 2015 at: https://president.ir/fa/90577 [In Persian]
  61. Presidential Information Center (2024). Report on fuel for the country's thermal power plants. (Online source), Retrieved on 2024 November 6   at: https://president.ir/fa/155238 [In Persian]
  62. Raei, H., Nazari, J., Sarzehi, M., & Maleki, A. (2022). Blessing or Curse of Natural Gas in Iran: Future Study of Natural Gas Exports Until 2050. Iranian Journal of Public Policy, 8(1), 151-167. doi: 10.22059/jppolicy.2022.85917 [In Persian]
  63. Razavi, S.R, Ghasem Nejad, M. (2015). An Introduction to Strategic Issues in Oil and Gas; First Series: Selected Strategic Issues in Energy Policymaking. Tehran: Imam Sadeq University Press.
  64. Review of Energy Storage Technologies (Natural Gas). (n.d.). Retrieved 29 November 2025, from https://ifco.ir/images/1402/yaddasht/pajohesh/gaz2.pdf
  65. Rezaei, T, Taklif, A and Ghasemi, A. (2018). Feasibility study of gas hub formation in Iran using SWOT approach. Iranian Energy Economics Research Journal, 8(29), 69-102. doi: 10.22054/jiee.2019.9917 [In Persian]
  66. Sadeghi, A., Dehghani Firouz Abadi, S.J., Ajili, H. (2018). Requirements of Iranian Energy Diplomacy in International Political Economy. International Relations Studies,11(43), 73-105. [In Persian]
  67. Shargh Network (2022). Iran's Golden Opportunity in the Conditions of the Russia-Ukraine War. (Online Source), Retrieved on 2022 April 30 at: https://www.sharghdaily.com/fa/tiny/news-845157 [In Persian]
  68. Shayan, F. (2023). The Gas Troika on the European Gas Market: Russia, Iran and Qatar Volume 1: 2008–2015. Berlin, Boston: De Gruyter. https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110981957
  69. Tavassoli, H. (2008). Providing eight operational models in the policy cycle for the optimal implementation of policies. Development strategy. Number 15. Page - 74 – 96. [In Persian]
  70. Tofigh, A. A., moazami, M. and abedian, M. (2016). Guidline for Iran's energy exports security policy making. Iranian Journal of Public Policy, 1(4), 61-80. doi: 10.22059/ppolicy.2016.58176 [In Persian]
  71. Value Chain Studies Center (2024). An exploration of the challenges of the 14th government; natural gas imbalance. (Online source), Retrieved on 02/04/1403 at: https://www.vcmstudy.ir/?p=23528 [In Persian]
  72. Weekly monitoring and analysis of gas developments (affiliated to the Institute of International Energy Studies), number 1, week 3 of April 2022 [In Persian]
سیاستگذاری عمومی
دوره 11، شماره 4
زمستان 1404
صفحه 170-192