تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر دستورکار سیاستگذاری گاز طبیعی ایران با استفاده از مدل جریان-های چندگانه کینگدان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد سیاستگذاری عمومی، دانشکده حقوق و الهیات، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

2 دانشیار سیاستگذاری عمومی، دانشکده حقوق و الهیات، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

3 استاد سیاستگذاری انرژی، دانشکده مهندسی انرژی، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران

10.22059/jppolicy.2025.105206

چکیده

انرژی گاز طبیعی در ایران با ناترازی مواجه است و این موضوع به دغدغه­ مسئولان اجرایی و تقنینی کشور تبدیل شده است. بیش از 70% از گاز طبیعی در بخش خانگی، تجاری و صنایع خُرد مصرف می­شود و همین موضوع، مدیریت انرژی گاز طبیعی را با چالش­ های جدی مواجه کرده است. این میزان از مصرف گاز با ظرفیت گاز تولیدی در کشور تناسب ندارد و از عمده دلایل بروز ناترازی می­ باشد. هدف پژوهش حاضر، تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر تعیین دستورکار سیاستگذاری گاز طبیعی در ایران است که با استفاده از چارچوب نظری جریان­های چندگانه­ کینگدان به آن پرداخته شده است. ­برای دستیابی به هدف پژوهش، 20 مصاحبه­ هدفمند با خبرگان انرژی با تخصص­های علمی مختلف و در سطوح سیاسی، اجرایی، حاکمیتی و دانشگاهی صورت پذیرفت. روش پژوهش در این تحقیق بدین صورت بود که با استفاده از روش تحلیل محتوای کیفی به تحلیل مصاحبه­ ها و پردازش داده­ ها پرداخته شد و سپس داده­ ها به صورت کدگذاری استخراج گردید و در جریان­های چندگانه دسته­ بندی شد. یافته­ های پژوهش نشان داد که 3 جریان مسئله­، سیاسی و سیاستگذاری در تعیین دستور کار انرژی گاز طبیعی ایران مؤثر است و با تحلیل عوامل این سه جریان، می­توان به پنجره فرصت­ های سیاستگذاری برای انرژی گاز طبیعی در ایران دست یافت. تنوع­ بخشی به سبد انرژی کشور با استفاده از انرژی­ های تجدیدپذیر، جلوگیری از هدر رفت انرژی گاز طبیعی در مسیر انتقال، بهینه­ سازی، نحوه­ قیمت­ گذاری، اصلاح الگوی مصرف و آزادسازی منابع گازی برای صادرات و ایجاد وابستگی سیاسی و ارزآوری اقتصادی بخشی از نتایج این پژوهش می­ باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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سیاستگذاری عمومی
دوره 11، شماره 4
دی 1404
صفحه 170-192

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