بحران انرژی در ایران به‌عنوان یک مسئله چندبعدی، نتیجه تعامل پیچیده‌ای از عوامل ساختاری، مدیریتی، اقتصادی و ژئوپلیتیکی است که امنیت انرژی کشور را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی و تحلیل نیروهای کلیدی مؤثر بر آینده بحران انرژی در ایران و ارائه سناریوهای محتمل در این زمینه بر اساس روش سناریونویسی شوارتز است. این پژوهش با استفاده از رویکرد کیفی و بهره‌گیری از مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با خبرگان، نیروهای کلیدی و عدم قطعیت‌های راهبردی را شناسایی و طبقه‌بندی کرده است. یافته‌های تحقیق با تاکید بر نیروهای کلیدی و پیشرانهایی که عدم قطعیت بالایی داشتند، نشان می‌دهد چهار سناریوی محتمل شامل توسعه پایدار، بی‌ثباتی سیاست‌ها، پیشرفت ناپایدار و سیاستگذاری هدفمند میباشند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که تنها سناریوی توسعه پایدار با ترکیب مدیریت هوشمند مصرف، سیاستگذاری هماهنگ، دیپلماسی انرژی فعال، کاهش اثرات اقلیمی، آگاهی و تغییر فرهنگی و پیشرفت فناوری می‌تواند به کاهش بحران انرژی و بهبود امنیت انرژی کشور منجر شود.
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