تبیین سناریوهای فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در منابع آب مشترک با تأکید بر رودخانه هیرمند

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشجو دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

منابع آب مشترک در مناسبات بین کشورها به‎ویژه در مناطق خشک جهان، نقش بسزایی دارد. با نگرش به چنین ویژگی و شناسه‌ای، رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌تواند در ترسیم آینده مناسبات کشورها بر سر منابع آب مشترک، راهبردی باشد. در پژوهش حاضر با روش دلفی 68 عامل تأثیرگذار بر مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در حوضه رود هیرمند شناسایی و با به‎کارگیری نرم‌افزار Micmac عوامل کلیدی مؤثر، مشخص و برای هر کدام از عوامل کلیدی حالت‌های گوناگونی طراحی و در قالب پرسشنامه متقاطع کلیدی تنظیم و در اختیار جامعه آماری پژوهش قرار گرفت. برای شناسایی سناریوهای محتمل از نرم افزار Scenario Wizard بهره گرفته شد. این نرم افزار با انجام تحلیل‌های مورد نیاز، سه سناریو قوی و محتمل را گزارش داد. بررسی سناریوهای محتمل، گویای چیرگی وضعیت بحرانی بر دیگر وضعیت‌های ممکن است. از این رو، وضعیت فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در رودخانه هیرمند، بحرانی نمود یافت.  

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