تبیین سناریوهای فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در منابع آب مشترک با تأکید بر رودخانه هیرمند

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشجو دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

منابع آب مشترک در مناسبات بین کشورها به‎ویژه در مناطق خشک جهان، نقش بسزایی دارد. با نگرش به چنین ویژگی و شناسه‌ای، رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌تواند در ترسیم آینده مناسبات کشورها بر سر منابع آب مشترک، راهبردی باشد. در پژوهش حاضر با روش دلفی 68 عامل تأثیرگذار بر مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در حوضه رود هیرمند شناسایی و با به‎کارگیری نرم‌افزار Micmac عوامل کلیدی مؤثر، مشخص و برای هر کدام از عوامل کلیدی حالت‌های گوناگونی طراحی و در قالب پرسشنامه متقاطع کلیدی تنظیم و در اختیار جامعه آماری پژوهش قرار گرفت. برای شناسایی سناریوهای محتمل از نرم افزار Scenario Wizard بهره گرفته شد. این نرم افزار با انجام تحلیل‌های مورد نیاز، سه سناریو قوی و محتمل را گزارش داد. بررسی سناریوهای محتمل، گویای چیرگی وضعیت بحرانی بر دیگر وضعیت‌های ممکن است. از این رو، وضعیت فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در رودخانه هیرمند، بحرانی نمود یافت.  

کلیدواژه‌ها

مراجع

  1. Akbari, M., Mirchi, A., Roozbahani, A., Gafurov, A., Kløve, B., & Haghighi, A. T. (2022). Desiccation of the transboundary Hamun Lakes between Iran and Afghanistan in response to hydro-climatic droughts and anthropogenic activities. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 48(4), 876-889. ‏
  2. Akhbari, A; Akhbari, M; Esmailpourroshan. (2019). Explaining the role of hydro politics on the foreign policy of Afghanistan and Iran (2015- 2019). Quarterly journal of human geography, 3(47): 213- 235. [In Persian].
  3. Al-Otaibi, A., Abdel-Jawad, M. (2007). Water security for Kuwait. Desalination 214, 299–305.
  4. Badiee Azendahi. M., Rahimi Herabadi. S., & Godarzi, Mer. S. (2012). The Role of Morphological Changes Hirmand Border River in Political Relations of Iran and Afghanistan. Human a geography research quarterly, 43(41). 197-220. [In Persian].
  5. Bagherzadeh, S., Mianabadi, H., Sadeghizadeh Bafandeh, S., Ghorbani, A., & Deylami, B. (2023). Normative Assessment of Enabling Factors for Adaptive Water Governance; Evidence and Lessons from the Hirmand River Basin, Iran. Environmental Management, 1-18.
  6. Bahak, B; Rouhi Kease, E; Mahdavizadeh, M. (2018). thhe hydropolitical position of the hirmand river in the national security Iran (case study of environmental security). Security knowledge, 5(10): 99-126. [In Persian].
  7. Belhassan, K. (2021). Water scarcity management. In Water Safety, Security and Sustainability: Threat Detection and Mitigation (pp. 443-462). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
  8. Birkenholtz, T. (2009). Irrigated landscapes, produced scarcity, and adaptive social institutions in Rajasthan, India. Ann Assoc Am Geogr, 99:118–137.
  9. Cascão, A. E., & Zeitoun, M. (2013). Power, hegemony and critical hydropolitics. In Transboundary water management (pp. 27-42). Routledge.
  10. Cook, C., & Bakker, K. (2012). Water security: Debating an emerging paradigm. Global environmental change, 22(1), 94-102.
  11. De Loe¨, R.C., Varghese, J., Ferreyra, C., Kreutzwiser, R.D. (2007). Water Allocation and Water Security in Canada: Initiating a Policy Dialogue for the 21st Century. Guelph Water Management Group. University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, p. 76.
  12. Dunn, G., Bakker, K. (2009). Canadian Approaches to Water Security: An Inventory of Indicators. Program on Water Governance. UBC, Vancouver.
  13. Eslami, R; Sarhadi, R; Feizi, M. (2019). The mechanism of strategy for diplomacy water right Iran in Hirmand River. Political strategic studies, 8(30):71-102. [In Persian].
  14. Falkenmark, M., Berntell, A., Ja¨gerskog, A., Lundqvist, J., Matz, M., Tropp, H. (2007). On the Verge of a New Water Scarcity: A Call for Good Governance and Human Ingenuity. SIWI Policy Brief. Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI), Stockholm.
  15. Falkenmark, M., Molden, D. (2008). Wake up to realities of river basin closure. International Journal of Water Resources Development 24, 201–215.
  16. FAO (2014). Coping with water scarcity in agriculture a global framework for action in a changing climate. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy. Available at http://www.fao.org/3/a-i6459e.
  17. Fotoohi, S., Negaresh, H., & Hatami Hadad, N. (2022). Detecting Morphological Changes in Hirmand River from Roodbar Afghanistan to Hamoon Sistan. Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement, 12(44), 117-144. ‏‏[In Persian].
  18. Ghoreishi, S. Z., Mianabadi, H., & Parvaresh Rizi, A. (2021). The TWINS Framework for Illustrating Co-Existing Conflict and Cooperation in the Hirmand River Basin. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 52(1), 273-300. ‏[In Persian].
  19. Gleditsch, N. P., Furlong, K., Hegre, H., Lacina, B., & Owen, T. (2006). Conflicts over shared rivers: Resource scarcity or fuzzy boundaries? Political Geography, 25(4), 361-382.‏
  20. Grey, D., & Sadoff, C. W. (2007). Sink or swim? Water security for growth and development. Water policy, 9(6), 545-571.
  21. Hafeznia, M. (2018). Principles and concepts of geopolitics. Mashhad: Popeli Publications. [In Persian].
  22. Hajihosseini, M., Hajihosseini, H., Morid, S., Delavar, M., & Booij, M. J. (2020). Impacts of land use changes and climate variability on transboundary Hirmand River using SWAT. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(4), 1695-1711
  23. Hajihosseini, M., Hajihosseini, H., Morid, S., Delavar, M., & Booij, M. J. (2020). Impacts of land use changes and climate variability on transboundary Hirmand River using SWAT. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(4), 1695-1711.
  24. Han, Xiao and Webber, Michael (2020), Assembling dams in Ghana: A genealogical inquiry into the fluidity of hydropolitics, Political Geography, Volume 78, pp 102-126, https://doi.org/10.1016 /j.polgeo. 2019.102126.
  25. Han,Xiao and webber,Michael(2020),Assembling dams in Ghana: A genealogical inquiry into the fluidity of hydropolitics, political Geography ,Volume 78,pp 102-126,https://doi.org/10.1016/i-polgeo-2019,102126
  26. Hussein, H (2017) Land and hydropolitics in the Nile River Basin: challenges and new investments, International Journal of Water Resources Development, 33:4, 680-682, DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2017.1299000
  27. Jensen, Sanne., and Kushniruk, Andre (2016). Boundary objects in clinical simulation and design of eHealth. Health Informatics Journal 22:248-264. https://doi.org/10.1177/1460458214551846
  28. Jepson, W., Budds, J., Eichelberger, L., Harris, L., Norman, E., O'Reilly, K., ... & Young, S. (2017). Advancing human capabilities for water security: A relational approach. Water Security, 1, 46-52.
  29. Karamzadeh, S., & Moradian, B. (2017). Irans Rights in Exploitation of Hirmand River from International Law Perspective. Journal of researches energy law studies, 3(2), 339-370. [In Persian].
  30. Kaviani Rad, M. (2020). Hydrolytic reflections of water crisis in Zayandeh Rood. Research political geography, 5(1): 115-132. [In Persian].
  31. Kaviani Rad, M; Mohamadi, M. (2021). The effect of water resources fluctuation on water security (sample study: south Khorasan). Research political geography, 5(4): 115-132. [In Persian].
  32. Kaviani Rad, M; Salehabadi, R; Aftabi, Z. (2021) Explaining the hydro political paradigm model with the Grand theory foundation, Research political geography,6(1), 24- 46. [In Persian].
  33. Loftus, A. (2015), Water (in)security: securing the right to water. The Geographical Journal, 181: 350-356.
  34. Martignago, Gabriele (2011) A Compartive Analysis of Save, Tisza, Dniester Transborder Water River Basin Management Agreements and Cooperation Politics and Thir Impact on the Enhancing of Mutual Understanding and the Wellbeing of People Involved, Phd Dissertation,29.
  35. Mianabadi, A., Davary, K., Mianabadi, H., & Karimi, P. (2020). International environmental conflict management in transboundary river basins. Water Resources Management, 34, 3445-3464.
  36. Mianabadi, A., Davary, K., Mianabadi, H., Karimi, P. (2020). International environmental conflict management in transboundary river basins. Water Resources Management, 34, 3445-3464
  37. Movlaie, A; Kaviani Rad, M; Rabiee, H; Ahmadi, V. (2021). The effect of water shortage in south west Asia on the Zionist regime territoriality. Strategic studies, 24(2): 105-141. [In Persian].
  38. Mustafa, D., & Halvorson, S. J. (2020). Critical water geographies: From histories to affect. Water, 12(7).
  39. Nagheeby, M., & Warner, J. (2018). The geopolitical overlay of the hydro politics of the harried river basin. international environmental agreements: politics, law and economic, 18(1), 839-860.
  40. Nagheeby, M., & Warner, J. (2022). The 150-Year Itch: Afghanistan-Iran Hydropolitics Over the Helmand/Hirmand River. Water Alternatives, 15(3), 551-573. ‏
  41. Nagheeby, M., & Warner, J. (2022). The 150-Year Itch: Afghanistan-Iran Hydropolitics Over the Helmand/Hirmand River. Water Alternatives, 15(3), 551-573.
  42. Najafi, A., & Vatanfada, J. (2011). Environmental challenges in trans-boundary waters, case study: Hamoon Hirmand Wetland (Iran and Afghanistan). International Journal of Water Resources and Arid Environments, 1(1), 16-24.
  43. Nandalal, K. D. W., and S. P. Simonovic. (2003). Resolving conflicts in water sharing: a systemic approach. Water Resources Research 39:1-11. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002172
  44. Nobahar, E and Kabiri,Renani, M. (2020). an exploration of the issues on Hirmand river a game theory approach. Geopolitics, 16(57): 183- 207. [In Persian].
  45. Norman, E., Bakker, K., Cook, C., Dunn, G., Allen, D. (2010). Water Security: A Primer. Program on Water Governance. UBC, Vancouver, p. 56.
  46. Rai, Soubash. and Wolf, Aron and Sharma, Nayan, and Harinarayan, Tiwari. (2016). Hydropolitics in Transboundary Water Conflict and Cooperation. River System Analysis and Management, 353–368. doi:10.1007/978-981-10-1472.
  47. Rijsberman, F.R. (2006). Water scarcity: fact or fiction? Agricultural Water Management 80, 5–22.
  48. Riveraine, Walters, and Kenzie, Erin and Metzger, Alexander and Baltutis, William Jesse and Chakrabarti, Kakali and Hirsch, Shana Lee and Laursen, Bethany K. (2019). A systems thinking approach for eliciting mental models from visual boundary objects in hydropolitical contexts: a case study from the Pilcomayo River Basin, Laursen Ecology and Society Vol. 24, No. 2. Pp 1041-1066.
  49. Rogers, S., & Crow-Miller, B. (2017). The politics of water: a review of hydropolitical frameworks and their application in China. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 4(6), e1239. doi:10.1002/wat2.1239
  50. Sadrania, H; KavianiRad, M; Nasri Fakhr Davood, S. (2022). The impact of water shortage crisis on Iran- Iraq hydro political relations. Political organizing of space. 4(2): 112- 125. [In Persian].
  51. Tarlock, A.D., Wouters, P. (2009). Reframing the water security dialogue. Journal of Water Law 20, 53–60.
  52. Turton, A and Henwood ,R. (2002) Hydro politics in the developing world : A southern African perspective . south Africa: African water Issues Research Unite CIPS.1-269.
  53. UN Water. What Is Water Security? Infographic. Available online: http://www.unwater.org/publications/water-security-infographic/
  54. Wei, Y., Wei, J., Wu, Sh., Yu, D., Ghoreish, M., Lu, Y., Souza, F., Sivapaalan, M., & Tian, F. (2022). Asocio hydrological framework for undersboundary rivers. hydrology and earth system science, 26(8), 2131-2146.
  55. Whitehead, M., Jones, R., Jones M. (2007). The Nature of the State: Excavating the Political Ecologies of the Modern State. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press
  56. Winz, I., Brierley, G., & Trowsdale, S. (2009). The use of system dynamics simulation in water resources management. Water resources management, 23, 1301-1323.
  57. Yousefi, S., Keesstra, S., Pourghasemi, H. R., Surian, N., & Mirzaee, S. (2017). Interplay between river dynamics and international borders: The Hirmand River between Iran and Afghanistan. Science of the Total Environment, 586, 492-501.
  58. Yousefi, S., Keesstra, S., Pourghasemi, H. R., Surian, N., Mirzaee, S. (2017). Interplay between river dynamics and international borders: The Hirmand River between Iran and Afghanistan. Science of the Total Environment, 586, 492-501
  59. Zeitoun, M., & Mirumachi, N. (2008). Transboundary water interaction I: Reconsidering conflict and cooperation. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 8, 297-316.
  60. Zeitoun, M., & Warner, J. F. (2006). Hydro-hegemony: a framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts. Water Policy, 8(5), 435-460. https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2006.054.
سیاستگذاری عمومی
دوره 9، شماره 4
1402
صفحه 47-63

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار