تحلیل سیاست‌های برنامه مشارکت ملی ذیل توافق پاریس در صنعت برق ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله اصلی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

2 دانشیار اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

فقدان الگویی جامع در صنعت برق جهت تحلیل کمّی پیامدهای سیاست­های اتخاذ شده در اسناد بالادستی این صنعت موجب شده امکان ارزیابی سیاست­ها دشوار شود. در این مطالعه الگوی تعادل عمومی پویا با محوریت صنعت برق طراحی و با لحاظ برنامه مشارکت ملی (INDC) به عنوان سند بالادستی که در جهت اجرای توافق پاریس تصویب شده، کارآمدی سیاست­هایی از قبیل سرمایه­گذاری مستقیم خارجی و افزایش قیمت انرژی -به عنوان سیاست جایگزین- به منظور دستیابی به سطوح انتشار کربن پیش­بینی شده در برنامه مورد سنجش واقع شده است. نتایج نشان داد اگر چه سرمایه­گذاری مستقیم خارجی به میزان پیش­بینی شده در برنامه و افزایش قیمت انرژی نمی­تواند اهداف را محقق سازد اما اثرات مثبتی بر ارزش ستانده بخش صنعت و به طور خاص صنعت برق در پی دارد. در پایان توصیه می­شود برای دستیابی به هدف کاهش انتشار و تقلیل اثرات بازگشتی ناشی از بهبود کارایی انرژی در بخش نیروگاهی، قیمت برق به صورت معناداری برای خانوار خصوصی افزایش داده شود.

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