مدل‌‌سازی مداخلات اثربخش در مدیریت و کنترل ویروس کرونا (SARS-CoV-2) در ایران: رویکردی آینده پژوهانه

نوع مقاله : مقاله اصلی

نویسندگان

1 استاد مدعو دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه تهران

2 استاد دانشگاه علوم پزشکی و خدمات بهداشتی درمانی شهید بهشتی

3 دانشیار دانشگاه علوم پزشکی و خدمات بهداشتی درمانی شهید بهشتی

4 استادیار دانشگاه علوم پزشکی و خدمات بهداشتی درمانی قم

5 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت آموزش عالی دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی

چکیده

داشتن اطلاعات و دانش کافی در مورد وضعیت همه گیری حاصل از (SARS-CoV-2)  ، یکی از موثرترین عوامل سیاستگذاری مبتنی بر شواهد در کنترل این پدیده مخرب در کشورها است. مداخلات مناسب و به موقع برای کنترل آگاهانه شیوع بیماری ضروری است. این مقاله مداخلات دولتی (پشتیبانی ، اقتصادی ، امنیتی) و راهبردی پیشگیری )4 (Tو مداخلات رفتاری در دوران قبل از واکسیناسیون و پس از واکسیناسیون را در کشورهای مختلف  بررسی می کند و واکسیناسیون را مهمترین و تأثیرگذارترین مداخله در حال حاضر می‌داند. با این حال، مداخلات غیردارویی(NPIs)، باید حداقل یک سال پس از واکسیناسیون کامل جمعیت مورد‌نظر ادامه یابد. قابل ذکر است که ایجاد جهش های جدید و فرار از واکسن، نگرانی‌های زیادی را برای ادامه کنترل بیماری ایجاد کرده‌است. روش پژوهش در این مقاله مبتنی بر شیوه مرور محدوده نظر ادبیات علمی برای یافتن منابع اصلی و مفاهیم کلیدی و شواهد موجود در شناخت انواع مداخلات حکومتی و غیردارویی رفتاری در جهان و مدل‌سازی با رویکرد آینده پژوهی در کنترل پاندمی بیماری کوید-19 در ایران بوده است. باتوجه به مطالعات انجام شده و بررسی روند بیماری در نقاط مختلف دنیا، این مقاله مدل مداخله نقطه‌ای- اقتضائی مبتنی برموج سینوس را برای کنترل بیماری کوید-۱۹ در ایران و کشورهای مشابه ارائه می‌نماید.

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