درآمدی بر مفهوم قلّه نفتی و الزامات سیاستگذاری: مطالعه موردی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 استاد سیاستگذاری انرژی، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف، تهران، ایران

چکیده

ویژگی پایان ­پذیر بودن منابع انرژی فسیلی بخصوص نفت و گاز طبیعی باعث شده­ است تا مطالعاتی پیرامون زمان به اتمام رسیدن این مخازن و یا زمان رخ دادن بیشینه استخراج از منابع صورت­ گیرد. در این مقاله ابتدا سیر تطوّر مفهوم قلّه یا قلّه نفتی مورد واکاوی قرار­گرفته ­است. سپس زمان وقوع قلّه نفتی ایران در قالب سه سناریو براساس نظریه هیوبرت مورد مطالعه قرار می­گیرد. همچنین، سایر عوامل همچون تکنولوژی، گذار انرژی، تغییرات اقلیمی، و کووید-19 به عنوان مباحث تکمیلی بررسی می­شوند. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می­ دهد که قلّه نفتی ایران در دو تا سه دهه پیش­رو رقم خواهد­خورد، اما با توجه به نگرانی­ هایی همچون گذار به سوی انرژی­ های تجدیدپذیر در جهان، فرصت ایران برای تصمیم ­گیری و اقدام بسیار محدود است. در پایان نیز توصیه ­های سیاستی مبتنی بر جوانب مختلف بررسی­ شده پیرامون قلّه نفتی، جهت مدیریت بهتر در رویارویی با قلّه نفتی ایران مطرح می­ شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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سیاستگذاری عمومی
دوره 9، شماره 3
1402
صفحه 78-99

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