Governance in the Field of Energy Distribution in Iran: Foresighting and Developing Policy Options


1 PHD of Futures Studies, University of Tehran

2 Faculty of management, University of tehran

3 Professor of management, University of Tehran


The aim of this research is to explore and foresight the main alternative scenarios for the future of the governance in electricity distribution and accordingly make some suggestions for policy making in this area. So, using scenario planning method (based on Schwartz model and integral methodological approach) the future of governance in the field of public utilities, is argued. For this purpose, quantitative tools Such as “cross impact analyze questionnaire” and “scenario wizard software” is combined with qualitative tools Such as interview and expert panels. The conclusions show that future governance can be described in five different scenarios including: big fat state, rentier government, individual market governance, collective market governance and smart social governance. Then, using the findings of the research and the views of the experts, for each of the alternative scenarios )third to fifth  scenario), options for policy formulation are suggested.


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