Future Scenarios Mapping of export promotion for the novel drugs on the horizon of 2035

Document Type : Research Article


1 PhD. Candidate International Marketing, Semnann University, Semnann , Iran

2 Assistant Professor, department of business management, Semnann University, Semnann , Iran

3 Associated Professor, department of business management, Semnann University, Semnann , Iran


One of the Compiled strategic priorities in the lead documents of the Iran's health discipline is to be a pioneer in the production &export of vaccines &novel drugs. The purpose of this study is to describe images of the future of the export promotion of vaccines &novel drugs on the horizon of 2035.  This research is applied &method used in this study was a scenario-based planning. In this study, the method of data collection was qualitative by using interview, questionnaire &expert panel. MICMAC software &Scenario wizard software were used for data analysis. The findings of this study can be divided into two parts. The first of section included: identifying &classifying key factors, driving forces &related uncertainties. Seven driving forces including: “sanction”, “the trust &credibility of novel drugs industry”, “compilation of national documentary novel drugs”, improving the molecule purity”, international networking”, “type of export viewpoint” &diversification in export market” were identified &the influence/dependence relationships among the factors were analyzed. The second section identified &described possible &consistent scenarios based on the key drivers &uncertainties. Based on the research findings, four consistent scenarios including: (1) elixir (2) pain killer (3) panacea &(4) hemlock, were explained &compared. Familiarity with the narratives of each these scenarios &their comparison &desirability will be enable health policy makers to realize the process of creating future   &achieve the visual visions in the lead of health discipline.


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