Schools of Scenario Planning: Comparative Study of Shell and Prospective


1 Assistant Professor of Health Future Research, Kerman University of Medical Science

2 Associate Professor Management and economics Tarbiat Modares University

3 Associat Professor, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Iran

4 Professor of Politics, Imam-Khomeini International University, Qazvin


A scenario is a method that is considered the ideal output of the futures studies i.e. it unifies the different methods used in the process of futures study methodologically. The purpose of the present research is to compare two great futures studies scenario schools that are La Prospective (French school) and Shell (English school) and we are going to better understand the features which are the pillars, basics and assumptions, methodology and scenario’s achievements, similarities and differences. The method used for this research has been a comparative study based on a historical, discourse and framework analysis according to the available library sources (written and online materials). This study has been performed at the level of terminology, epistemology, methodology, etc. and resulted in extracting the macro model of scenario schools.


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