Using Future Studies Methods to Develop Capability of the Oil and Gas Policies


1 Ph.D. of Future Studies, Imam Khomeini International University

2 Political Science Associate Professor at Imam Khomeini International University

3 Economics Associate Professor at Imam Khomeini International University

4 Human Resource Management and Future Studies Professor of Imam Hossein University


The importance of politics is so high that any attempt to improve the policy making process is considered important. This improvement can also be achieved by utilizing the capacity of other sciences like Futures Study. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop the capacity of the public policy process through the use of futures study methods. For the purpose of limiting the scope and applicability of the results, the oil and gas policy process has been selected as the case of study. In order to this, after studying the literature, and with the opinion of the supervisor and counselors, a 6-point Likert Scales questionnaire was designed, and 15 experts answered the questions. The number of experts has been determined based on the required sample in Delphi analysis, so the fuzzy Delphi method has been used to analyze the data. Based on the results, system thinking method at the stage of identifying and evaluating policy issues stage, scenario at the stage of creating policy options, cost-benefit analysis at the ex-ante assessment stage, action plan at the policy implementation stage, and policy review and policy impact assessment at the ex-post evaluation stage are the most suitable.


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