A comparative analysis of policy impacts of Science, Technology and Innovation foresight

Document Type : Research Article

Author

Abstract

The title of “the impacts of foresight on policy” Implies that foresight as a Strategic intelligence. The title suggests the need for policymakers to assess the position of foresight in the policy system and ways to improve its impacts. Also, a prerequisite for successful design of foresight activities is a clear understanding of the types of foresight impacts on policy making and this is the aim of this study. In this regard, we are enjoying a thematic analysis to identify and classify the policy impacts of the world's foresight programs. Then, based on the identified impacts, a questionnaire have been designed and distributed among the actors of national foresight projects using snowball sampling to evaluate its policy effects. The results demonstrated that impacts such as networking, collective learning and knowledge creation, improvement of relations among actors, strengthening the role of community in development policy and foresight culture have a high weight and their realization is almost complete but the realization of an impactsuch as improved decision-making and policy making was not very good. An advantage of studying the experiences of foresight different countries, creating a codified knowledge about the policy impacts of foresight programs which can be instructive for those involved in foresight and policy making.

Keywords


الف) فارسی
1-       بخشی، محمدرضا (1386)، آینده‌نگاری فناوری (مطالعه موردی: چین)، ماهنامه تدبیر 18(182):14-29.
2-       حسنوی، رضا،‌ قدیر نظامی‌پور، ‌علیرضا بوشهری، عادل آذر ‌و سعید قربانی ( 1392)، طراحی مدل تأثیر آینده‌نگاری بر سیاستگذاری علم، فناوری و نوآوری در سطح ملی با استفاده از روش مدل‌یابی معادلات ساختاری، سیاست علم و فناوری 6(1):21-34.
3-       کاشی‌پور،‌ میثم،‌ کرامت‌زاده، عبدالمجید (1385)، معرفی فعالیت‌های آینده‌نگاری دفاعی و نظامی در ایالات متحده آمریکا، همایش آینده‌پژوهی،‌ فناوری و چشم‌انداز توسعه، 1الی4 خرداد 1385، تهران، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر.
4-       کاظمی، سید حبیب­الله، موسوی ­مشهدی، محمود ( 1385)، آینده‌نگاری فناوری و فناوری‌های آینده هندوستان برای سال 2020، همایش آینده‌پژوهی، فناوری و چشم‌انداز توسعه 85، تهران، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر.
5-       مؤمنی، منصور، قیومی، فعال، علی (1386)، تحلیل‌های آماری با استفاده از SPSS (چاپ سوم)، تهران، کتاب نو.
6-       ناظمی، امیر، قدیری، روح‌الله (1385)، آینده‌نگاری از مفهوم تا اجرا، تهران، مرکز صنایع نوین.
7-       نیک‌پور،‌ فرزان،‌ نیل­فروشان، هادی، پورمحمدی، امین (1382)، آینده‌نگاری فناوری در آمریکا، مجموعه مقالات دومین همایش علم و فناوری: آینده و راهبردها 82، تهران، مرکز تحقیقات استراتژیک.
8-       نامداریان، لیلا، حسن­زاده، علیرضا، مجیدپور، مهدی (1393)، ارزیابی تاثیر آینده­نگاری بر سیاستگذاری علم، فناوری و نوآوری، مدیریت نوآوری 3(2): 102-73.
 
 
ب) انگلیسی
9- Amanatidou, E. (2011), Grand challenges–a new framework for foresight evaluation. In EU-SPRI conference papers. Manchester (pp. 20-22).
10- Amanatidou, E., & Guy, K. (2008), Interpreting foresight process impacts: steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of ‘foresight systems’. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(4), 539-557.
11- Barre, R. )2001(. Synthesis of technology foresight. Strategic policy intelligence: current trends, the state of play and perspectives, 71-88.
12- Bass, B. M. (1998), Leading in the army after next. Military Review, 78(2), 46.
13- Bjorn, L., & Lubeck, L. (2003, February), Swedish technology foresight-a successful project, with many lessons learned. In The Second International Conference on Technology Foresight (pp. 27-28).
14- Bourgeois, P. (2001), Technology foresight for strategic decision-making. na.
15- Cantner, U., & Pyka, A. (2001), Classifying technology policy from an evolutionary perspective. Research Policy, 30(5), 759-775.
16- Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2006), Using thematic analysis in psychology. Qualitative research in psychology, 3(2), 77-101.
17- Calof, J., & Smith, J. E. (2010), Critical success factors for government-led foresight. Science and Public Policy, 37(1), 31.
18- Creswell, J. W., Plano Clark, V. L., Gutmann, M. L., & Hanson, W. E. (2003), Advanced mixed methods research designs. Handbook of mixed methods in social and behavioral research, 209-240.
19- Da Costa, O., Warnke, P., Cagnin, C., & Scapolo, F. (2008), The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20(3), 369-387.
20- European Commission. )2007(. Key figures on science, technology and innovation. Toward a European research area. Luxembourg : Office for publications of the European communities.
21- Georghiou, L., and M. Keenan. )2008(. Evaluation and Impact of Foresight. The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice, 376.
22- Georghiou, L. (2003), Evaluating foresight and lessons for its future impact. In Second International Conference on Technology Foresight (Vol. 2728).
23- Grim, T. (2009), Foresight Maturity Model (FMM): Achieving best practices in the foresight field. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(4), 69-80.
24- Habegger, B. (2010), Strategic foresight in public policy: Reviewing the experiences of the UK, Singapore, and the Netherlands. Futures, 42(1), 49-58.
25- Havas, A., Schartinger, D., & Weber, M. (2010), The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives. Research Evaluation, 19(2), 91-104.
26- Hugues, P. J.  Sébastien, M., Jacques, T. )2009(. Science and Technology Foresight: Four French Case Studies. french: futuribles. http://www.forschungsnetzwerk.at/downloadpub/futurible_french_foresight_Foresight.pdf (Accessed at  April 19, 2016).
27- Johnston, R. (2012), Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight. Foresight, 14(1), 56-68.
28- Klusacek, K. (2004), Technology foresight in the Czech Republic. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 1(1-2), 89-105.
29- Ladikas, M., & Decker, M. (2004), Assessing the impact of future-oriented technology assessment. In EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville (pp. 13-14).
30- Martin, B. R. (1995), Foresight in science and technology. Technology analysis & strategic management, 7(2), 139-168.
31- Martin, B. R., & Irvine, J. (1989), Research foresight: Priority setting in science. Burns & Oates.
32- Salmenkaita, J. P., & Salo, A. (2002), Rationales for government intervention in the commercialization of new technologies. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 14(2), 183-200.
33- Saritas, O., Taymaz, E., & Tumer, T. (2007), Vision 2023: Turkey's national Technology Foresight Program: A contextualist analysis and discussion. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(8), 1374-1393.
34- Schartinger, D., Wilhelmer, D., Holste, D., & Kubeczko, K. (2012), Assessing immediate learning impacts of large foresight processes. Foresight, 14(1), 41-55.
35- Seya, M. )2000(. Technology foresight in Japan. Proceeding of the international Seminar Foresight Studies on Science and Technology, September, 2000, Japan.
36- Thayer, T. (2012), Foresight and policy-making – Addressing the need for theoretical frameworks. http://w w w .education4site.org/blog/2011/foresight_and_p/ (Accessed July 19, 2016).
37- UNIDO. (2005), Unido technology foresight manual: Organization and methods, Vienna.
38- Wonglimpiyarat, J. (2007), National foresight in science and technology strategy development. Futures, 39(6), 718-728.