Structural Analysis of Drivers and Strategic Uncertainties of the Future Energy Crisis in Iran

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

2 Ph.D. of Political Science, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

Abstract

The energy crisis in Iran, as a multidimensional dilemma, originates from the complicated action of structural, managerial, economic and geopolitical concern that have affected the energy security of the country. In the present study, we aim to identify and analyze the significant drivers of future energy crisis and provide plausible scenarios for addressing the energy crisis using Schwartz’s scenario planning method. Through the qualitative approach and semi-structured interviews with experts, the present research identifies and classifies the main drivers and strategic uncertainties. The findings of the present study, based on drivers of high uncertainty, illustrate four plausible scenarios as follows: "Sustainable Development," "Policy Instability," "Unstable Progress," and "Targeted Policymaking." The findings suggest that only Sustainable Development scenario can address the energy crisis and to improve Iran's energy security through smart consumption management, coordinated and effective policymaking, active energy diplomacy, minimize climate effects and increasing the cultural awareness of consumers and technology development.  

Keywords

References

  1. Behn, D., Pogoretskyy, V. (2012). Tensions between the Liberalist and Statist Approaches to Energy Trade Governance: The Case of Gas Dual Pricing. In: Kuzemko, C., Belyi, A.V., Goldthau, A., Keating, M.F. (eds) Dynamics of Energy Governance in Europe and Russia. International Political Economy Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230370944_3
  2. Boute, A. (2012). The European Foreign Energy Efficiency Policy: Securing External Energy Supply in a Carbon-Constrained World. In: Kuzemko, C., Belyi, A.V., Goldthau, A., Keating, M.F. (eds) Dynamics of Energy Governance in Europe and Russia. International Political Economy Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230370944_4
  3. Cherp, A., Adenikinju, A., Goldthau, A., Hernandez, F., Hughes, L., Jewell, J., & Vakulenko, S. (2012). Energy and security. In Global energy assessment: Toward a sustainable future (pp. 325-383). Cambridge University Press.
  4. Elmes, D. (2012). Governments, Policies and Companies: A Business Perspective. In: Kuzemko, C., Belyi, A.V., Goldthau, A., Keating, M.F. (eds) Dynamics of Energy Governance in Europe and Russia. International Political Economy Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230370944_13
  5. Fadaei Amir, D., Shams Esfandabadi, Z., & Abbasi, A. (2010). A Review on the Causes of Failure in Achieving the Goals of Iran’s Renewable Energy Sector in the Fourth Development Plan. Iranian Energy Journal, 13(2), 23. [In Persian]
  6. Farnoosh, A., Lantz, F., & Percebois, J. (2020). Electricity and renewable energy policies in Iran: An analysis of shortcomings. Energy Policy, 136, 111-120.
  7. Fartash, K., Khayatian Yazdi, M. S., & Ghorbani, A. (2020). The role of actors in the solar energy governance in Iran: A critical study. Iranian Journal of Public Policy, 6(2), 155-177.
  8. Fraune, C. (2022). Energy Democracy and Participation in Energy Transitions. In: Knodt, M., Kemmerzell, J. (eds) Handbook of Energy Governance in Europe. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43250-8_45
  9. Goldthau, A. (2012). Emerging Governance Challenges for Eurasian Gas Markets after the Shale Gas Revolution. In: Kuzemko, C., Belyi, A.V., Goldthau, A., Keating, M.F. (eds) Dynamics of Energy Governance in Europe and Russia. International Political Economy Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230370944_11
  10. Habibi, Arash; Afridi, Sanam. (2022). Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Tehran: Narvan Publications. [In Persian]
  11. Hajiani, H. (2018). The impact of sanctions on energy from the perspective of international law. Journal of Citizenship Rights Studies, 2(7), 151. [In Persian]
  12. Hajimirzaei, S. M. A., Behroozi Far, M., Bahadori, Sh., & Malek Hosseini, A. (2024). Evaluation of approved policies in the energy sector and proposing policies for improving energy governance in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Energy Economics Studies, 20(80), 269-305. [In Persian]
  13. Heidari, B., & Kiani, M. A. (2023). Gasoline imbalance under the shadow of unfulfilled good governance in the energy sector. Journal of New Approaches in Management Sciences, 4(2), 285-297. [In Persian]
  14. Hettich, P., & Kachi, A. (2021). Swiss Energy Governance: Political, Economic and Legal Challenges and Opportunities in the Energy Transition.  Poland: Springer International Publishing.
  15. Motaghi, S. E., & Davoudi, M. (2021). An Introduction to Energy Security, National Security and Citizenship (Case Study of Iran). Journal of Researches Energy Law Studies, 7(1), 211-227. [In Persian]
  16. Neukirch, M. (2022). Transition of Energy Systems: Patterns of Stability and Change. In: Knodt, M., Kemmerzell, J. (eds) Handbook of Energy Governance in Europe. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43250-8_40
  17. Pirani, S. (2012). Russo-Ukrainian Gas Wars and the Call on Transit Governance. In: Kuzemko, C., Belyi, A.V., Goldthau, A., Keating, M.F. (eds) Dynamics of Energy Governance in Europe and Russia. International Political Economy Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230370944_9
  18. Rodi, M., Kalis, M. (2022). Extending Energy Policy: The Challenge of Sector Integration. In: Knodt, M., Kemmerzell, J. (eds) Handbook of Energy Governance in Europe. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43250-8_44
  19. Sadeghi, H., Amini, M. H., & Shahbaz, M. (2018). Energy governance in Iran: Challenges and policy recommendations. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 81, 1292-1303.
  20. Salimifar, M., & Khadem, F. (2017). Feasibility study and presentation of an optimal management model for oil revenues (Case study: Iran). Journal of Development Strategy, 13(1), 176. [In Persian]
  21. Schoenefeld, J.J., Rayner, T. (2022). Monitoring Energy Policy. In: Knodt, M., Kemmerzell, J. (eds) Handbook of Energy Governance in Europe. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43250-8_43
  22. Schwartz, P. (2012). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. United Kingdom: Crown.
  23. Sovacool, B. K., & Florini, A. (2012). Examining the complications of global energy governance. Journal of Energy & Natural Resources Law, 30(3), 235-263.
  24. Sovacool, B. K., Drupady, I. M. (2016). Energy Access, Poverty, and Development: The Governance of Small-Scale Renewable Energy in Developing Asia. United Kingdom: Taylor & Francis.
  25. Strünck, C. (2022). Energy Poverty. In: Knodt, M., Kemmerzell, J. (eds) Handbook of Energy Governance in Europe. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43250-8_39
Iranian Journal of Public Policy
Volume 11, Issue 3
September 2025
Pages 173-188

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics