Developing Strategic Options for Policy Making in the Iranian Oil Industry, based on Strategic Foresight

Document Type : Research Article


1 Ph.D. Student in Futures study Imam Khomeini International University

2 Associate Prof. Imam Khomeini International University


: Due to the position of oil in GDP, policy-making in the Iranian oil industry is important, but increasing uncertainty in this area has led the planning and policy system in this industry to new approaches such as strategic foresight. The purpose of this study is to develop scenarios for the Iranian oil industry by 2025 and to develop strategic options on this basis. The overall research method is "scenario". In order to identify and prioritize the factors influencing the industry, a two-stage Delphi used with open and closed questionnaires, and the distribution of "critical factors" in the Wilson Matrix Was drawn. The research findings, based on the various statuses of critical factors and their "cross- impact analysis" with the help of the "Scenario Wizard software," show the feasibility of four scenarios with strong "internal consistency". Finally, based on research findings, strategic options for policy-making in the Iranian oil industry presented.


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