University of Tehran Iranian Journal of Public Policy 2538-5577 8 2 2022 08 23 Future Scenarios Mapping of export promotion for the novel drugs on the horizon of 2035 Future Scenarios Mapping of export promotion for the novel drugs on the horizon of 2035 9 22 87945 10.22059/jppolicy.2022.87945 FA Mozafar Naseri Taheri PhD. Candidate International Marketing, Semnann University, Semnann , Iran 0000-0003-1749-7618 Seyed Abbas Ebrahimi Assistant Professor, department of business management, Semnann University, Semnann , Iran 0000-0002-6289-6426 Hossein Damghanian Associated Professor, department of business management, Semnann University, Semnann , Iran 0000-0002-7576-1862 Azimollah Zareei Associated Professor, department of business management, Semnann University, Semnann , Iran Journal Article 2022 07 03 One of the Compiled strategic priorities in the lead documents of the Iran's health discipline is to be a pioneer in the production &export of vaccines &novel drugs. The purpose of this study is to describe images of the future of the export promotion of vaccines &novel drugs on the horizon of 2035. This research is applied &method used in this study was a scenario-based planning. In this study, the method of data collection was qualitative by using interview, questionnaire &expert panel. MICMAC software &Scenario wizard software were used for data analysis. The findings of this study can be divided into two parts. The first of section included: identifying &classifying key factors, driving forces &related uncertainties. Seven driving forces including: “sanction”, “the trust &credibility of novel drugs industry”, “compilation of national documentary novel drugs”, improving the molecule purity”, international networking”, “type of export viewpoint” &diversification in export market” were identified &the influence/dependence relationships among the factors were analyzed. The second section identified &described possible &consistent scenarios based on the key drivers &uncertainties. Based on the research findings, four consistent scenarios including: (1) elixir (2) pain killer (3) panacea &(4) hemlock, were explained &compared. Familiarity with the narratives of each these scenarios &their comparison &desirability will be enable health policy makers to realize the process of creating future &achieve the visual visions in the lead of health discipline. One of the Compiled strategic priorities in the lead documents of the Iran's health discipline is to be a pioneer in the production &export of vaccines &novel drugs. The purpose of this study is to describe images of the future of the export promotion of vaccines &novel drugs on the horizon of 2035. This research is applied &method used in this study was a scenario-based planning. In this study, the method of data collection was qualitative by using interview, questionnaire &expert panel. MICMAC software &Scenario wizard software were used for data analysis. The findings of this study can be divided into two parts. The first of section included: identifying &classifying key factors, driving forces &related uncertainties. Seven driving forces including: “sanction”, “the trust &credibility of novel drugs industry”, “compilation of national documentary novel drugs”, improving the molecule purity”, international networking”, “type of export viewpoint” &diversification in export market” were identified &the influence/dependence relationships among the factors were analyzed. The second section identified &described possible &consistent scenarios based on the key drivers &uncertainties. Based on the research findings, four consistent scenarios including: (1) elixir (2) pain killer (3) panacea &(4) hemlock, were explained &compared. Familiarity with the narratives of each these scenarios &their comparison &desirability will be enable health policy makers to realize the process of creating future &achieve the visual visions in the lead of health discipline.

https://jppolicy.ut.ac.ir/article_87945_b9c9d41d2ba7e081da0b4cdc2117fc46.pdf